← 0907(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at 0907(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽

decks
6 (18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32 11-13-8
overall winrate
46.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.0% avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
46.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1263 · median 1222 · range 1145–1539 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068 Q1 1205 Q3 1402 1539
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 28.1% 7 1-3-3 35.7% 40.9% 49.2% -0.4
Fire Crux Lorraine 9.4% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 40.5% -9.2
Fire Suited 9.4% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 34.1% -10.2
Wind Crux Lorraine 9.4% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 67.5% +13.1
Fire Suzaku 6.2% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 58.7% +6.5
Water Allies 6.2% 4 2-0-2 75.0% 62.5% 59.1% +5.8
Fire Crux Hybrid 3.1% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 3.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.7% +2.8
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.1% 0
Fire Ravishing Mill 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.0% +12.7
Fire Umbra Ranger 3.1% 0
Slimes 3.1% 0
Water Aetherwing 3.1% 0
Water Astra Ranger 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.3% +14.9
Water Fractal 3.1% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 39.8% -9.7
Water Genbu 3.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 42.2% -7.5
Water Umbra Guardian 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.8% +10.9
Wind Astra Cleric 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.9% +7.8
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Cleansing Reunion -1.00 0 1 0
Heavenly Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Winbless Lookout -1.00 0 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon +1.00 1 0 0
Verdigris Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester -1.00 0 1 0
Mastermind Scheme +1.00 1 0 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Blackmarket Broker -1.00 0 1 0
Diablerie +1.00 1 0 0
Scout the Land +1.00 1 0 0
Stifling Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen +1.00 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Windmill Engineer -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Blinding Orb +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 1 0 0
Penumbral Waltz +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/33550/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike