Fire SuitedTier 2
at 0907(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 28.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.1% | -5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.9% | +10.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.9% | -12.6 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Two of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ashen Riffle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |