Water GenbuTier 2
at 0907(日)永和豬豬玩具_下午1點_店冠賽
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-2-4
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1440
· median 1440
· range 1440–1440
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1205
Q3 1402
1539
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 28.1% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.5% | -4.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.8% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Suited | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Genbu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
