← DX Store Champion Main Event
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at DX Store Champion Main Event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 56.2% | 10 | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 64.5% | +7.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.4% | +10.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 9.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 30.9% | -10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.6% | -12.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Incarnate Majesty. Losers more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Crux Sight, Library Witch.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly Guide | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Galed Erasure | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |