← DX Store Champion Main Event
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at DX Store Champion Main Event
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.4%
avg ELO -4.9 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1362
· median 1362
· range 1362–1362
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1037
Q1 1210
Q3 1366
1491
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 56.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 28.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
