Fire RileTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 18 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Replagas 83 cards · placed #4
• TWS 83 cards · placed #5
• Froskie 85 cards · placed #6
• Lsentinel 84 cards · placed #7
• Drakoitzu 83 cards · placed #8
• YooYaaMeh 82 cards · placed #10
• MiraiD 83 cards · placed #11
• Keefeee 83 cards · placed #14
• Terpe 83 cards · placed #15
• myamya 83 cards · placed #16
• EwiseiQ 83 cards · placed #17
• imKL 83 cards · placed #19
• Liekkii 85 cards · placed #23
• Kris 88 cards · placed #24
• Shisamo 83 cards · placed #27
• Jkoh 85 cards · placed #30
• ZhangJing 83 cards · placed #31
• Hakuryu 81 cards · placed #32

In 15 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Nullifying Lantern, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Incarnate Majesty. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Fire Resonance Bauble, Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper.

↑ Played more by winners

Nullifying Lantern

Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 8.

Blanche, Sheltering Saint

Winning decks ran 1.9 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 7.

Incarnate Majesty

Winning decks ran 1.6 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 4, both ran the same in 4.

Backup Charger

Winning decks ran 0.9 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 8.

Evercurrent Raider

Winning decks ran 3.7 copies on average, losing decks 3.4.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 4, both ran the same in 4.

Resolute Stand

Winning decks ran 3.5 copies on average, losing decks 3.0.

Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 7.

↓ Played more by losers

Reduce to Ash

Losing decks ran 2.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.9.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 9, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 3.

Fire Resonance Bauble

Losing decks ran 0.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 11.

Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper

Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 11.

Wind Resonance Bauble

Losing decks ran 0.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 11.

Staggering Strike

Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.1.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 10.

Clarent, Reimagined

Losing decks ran 0.2 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 12.