EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Sentinel Games DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Allies

54.8%

9.5% share · 18 matches

7.1% share · 14 matches

2.4% share · 5 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Aggro	3	7.1%	14	64.3%	55.8%	55.2%	52.5%	1410	↑ top
2	Water Allies	4	9.5%	18	72.2%	60.0%	54.8%	51.8%	1433	↑ top
3	Water Neos Tonoris	1	2.4%	5	60.0%	62.7%	54.5%	58.5%	1208	↓ low
4	Water Aetherwing	1	2.4%	5	40.0%	49.7%	53.8%	55.1%	1383	—
5	Fire Crux Lorraine	2	4.8%	10	70.0%	65.5%	53.4%	54.1%	1312	—
6	Wind Seiryuu	3	7.1%	15	66.7%	65.4%	52.4%	53.7%	1376	—
7	Fire Umbra Guardian	3	7.1%	10	35.0%	39.1%	52.1%	50.4%	1308	—
8	Fire Suited	1	2.4%	5	60.0%	55.0%	52.0%	52.5%	1395	↑ top
9	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	4.8%	10	45.0%	46.9%	50.7%	50.7%	1363	—
10	Wind Shadowstrike	6	14.3%	25	52.0%	54.8%	49.3%	51.2%	1327	—
11	Horse and Taxes	1	2.4%	4	50.0%	43.1%	49.2%	46.9%	1460	↑ top
12	Fire Crux Mage	3	7.1%	12	41.7%	47.1%	48.0%	48.6%	1311	—
13	Fire Suzaku	5	11.9%	13	30.8%	31.2%	47.3%	46.4%	1272	↓ low
14	Water Genbu	2	4.8%	4	50.0%	41.1%	44.6%	42.9%	1477	↑ top
15	Wind Allies	2	4.8%	8	25.0%	41.4%	43.5%	46.5%	1206	↓ low
16	Wind Wakeup Combo	2	4.8%	6	16.7%	33.1%	41.0%	43.5%	1288	↓ low
17	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.4%	2	0.0%	35.4%	40.0%	42.1%	1283	↓ low
18	Water Astra Ranger	1	2.4%	2	0.0%	36.7%	40.0%	41.4%	1164	↓ low