← EVO Store Championship(need entry on tonamel first)

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at EVO Store Championship(need entry on tonamel first). EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Fractal 3 9.4% 16 62.5% 52.1% 54.5% 50.8% 1417 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Mage 1 3.1% 8 68.8% 51.6% 54.1% 51.2% 1560 ↑ top
3 Water Aetherwing 2 6.2% 14 75.0% 61.9% 54.0% 51.5% 1399 ↑ top
4 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 3.1% 5 50.0% 52.5% 52.2% 52.6% 1215 ↓ low
5 Water Umbra Guardian 1 3.1% 6 58.3% 51.0% 52.0% 50.6% 1264
6 Fire Aggro 2 6.2% 13 61.5% 59.3% 51.7% 52.1% 1251
7 Water Astra Ranger 1 3.1% 6 50.0% 51.2% 51.1% 51.8% 1455 ↑ top
8 Wind Byakko 1 3.1% 5 50.0% 50.3% 51.0% 50.3% 1237
9 Wind Crux Mage 1 3.1% 5 50.0% 50.3% 51.0% 50.3% 1237
10 Wind Shadowstrike 3 9.4% 17 47.1% 48.8% 50.8% 50.5% 1382 ↑ top
11 Fire Suzaku 4 12.5% 22 54.5% 57.8% 50.6% 52.3% 1216 ↓ low
12 Wind Seiryuu 2 6.2% 13 53.8% 56.9% 49.4% 51.3% 1357 ↑ top
13 Fire Arcane 1 3.1% 5 60.0% 61.1% 49.1% 51.3% 1161 ↓ low
14 Water Allies 1 3.1% 5 50.0% 42.8% 49.0% 46.6% 1267
15 Fire Ravishing Mill 1 3.1% 6 33.3% 31.7% 47.3% 43.7% 1372 ↑ top
16 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 3.1% 5 40.0% 39.5% 46.7% 44.7% 1324
17 Wind Allies 1 3.1% 6 33.3% 41.6% 45.0% 45.4% 1027 ↓ low
18 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 6.2% 10 30.0% 45.2% 44.9% 47.4% 1113 ↓ low
19 Water Genbu 1 3.1% 5 20.0% 36.4% 44.4% 45.4% 1153 ↓ low
20 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 3.1% 5 40.0% 40.8% 44.0% 43.0% 1303
21 Fire Suited 2 6.2% 10 25.0% 42.1% 42.5% 46.1% 1163 ↓ low
22 Water Oblation 1 3.1% 5 20.0% 42.1% 41.3% 44.9% 1095 ↓ low