Fire RileTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/4/2025
decks
22
(50.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
63
38-19-6
overall winrate
65.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
55.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1345
· median 1369
· range 1159–1563
(22 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1206
Q3 1421
1563
32% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.4% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.8% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 51.2% | +0.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Tristan | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
Decklists · 22 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 16 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Spirit of Fire, Crux Sight, Fiery Interference. Losers more often ran: Rending Flames, Reduce to Ash, Varuckan Acolyte.
Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Fiery Interference
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 9.
Under Fire
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Arondight, Azure Blade
Winning decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Lorraine, Crux Knight
Winning decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 16 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Rending Flames
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 3.
Varuckan Acolyte
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 7.
Unyielding Wraithguard
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 9.
Consumption Ring
Losing decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 16 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Show all 195 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 175 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit of Fire | +0.31 | 7 | 2 | 5 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.25 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.25 | 3 | 7 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.19 | 5 | 8 | 3 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.19 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.19 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.19 | 3 | 6 | 3 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.19 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.19 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Galed Erasure | +0.19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.12 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.12 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.12 | 4 | 6 | 6 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.12 | 5 | 3 | 5 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.12 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 3 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.06 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |
| Penetrator Round | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.06 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 15 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Punishing Cartridge | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.06 | 5 | 6 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.06 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| Tasershot | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| False Step | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.06 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.06 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.06 | 6 | 7 | 3 | |
| Firetongue | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.06 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.06 | 4 | 5 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fireball | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.06 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.06 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Attack | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebound Draug | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.06 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Malevolent Vow | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Combat Training | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temper in Flames | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 6 | 6 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 6 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lingering Banshee | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Furnace Drone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blighted Jewel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Expulsion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |