Fire SuitedTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 9/4/2025
decks
2
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-5-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1224
· median 1224
· range 1164–1283
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1206
Q3 1421
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 50.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
