EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GOH DTR SC.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 15.0% | 19 | 68.4% | 51.8% | 56.9% | 51.7% | 1347 | — |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 46.9% | 52.5% | 48.3% | 1407 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 10.0% | 12 | 62.5% | 61.8% | 52.3% | 54.7% | 1354 | — |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 15.0% | 15 | 60.0% | 60.6% | 51.2% | 52.8% | 1398 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 2 | 10.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 38.2% | 50.3% | 47.6% | 1238 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 5.0% | 3 | 50.0% | 54.6% | 50.0% | 52.6% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.0% | 6 | 41.7% | 45.9% | 49.0% | 49.4% | 1468 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 56.0% | 48.8% | 54.2% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 5.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 46.0% | 48.0% | 45.6% | 1472 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 61.6% | 47.2% | 51.3% | 1305 | — |
| 11 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.3% | 46.7% | 47.5% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 5.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.3% | 46.7% | 47.5% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Allies | 2 | 10.0% | 7 | 7.1% | 32.9% | 40.8% | 44.5% | 1246 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 5.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 35.3% | 40.0% | 40.3% | 1469 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 12.5% | 43.9% | 38.3% | 45.2% | 1199 | ↓ low |