Water FractalTier 2
at 暖角落 GA 店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.5%
avg ELO -7.7 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1223
· median 1223
· range 1223–1223
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
996
Q1 1237
Q3 1407
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 21.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rile | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
