← Distorted Reflections UK Regionals!

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Distorted Reflections UK Regionals!. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 2 10.5% 11 72.7% 57.8% 57.5% 53.8% 1306 ↑ top
2 Wind Astra Cleric 1 5.3% 7 71.4% 54.7% 54.2% 51.4% 1405 ↑ top
3 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 5.3% 7 57.1% 62.3% 53.1% 55.4% 1382 ↑ top
4 Fire Aggro 1 5.3% 5 50.0% 37.9% 52.7% 47.2% 1311 ↑ top
5 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 5.3% 7 71.4% 65.6% 52.5% 53.8% 1327 ↑ top
6 Fire Suited 1 5.3% 5 50.0% 56.5% 51.4% 53.6% 1163 ↓ low
7 Water Ravishing Mill 1 5.3% 4 62.5% 52.2% 50.0% 49.1% 1207
8 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 10.5% 6 41.7% 54.3% 49.0% 52.8% 1115 ↓ low
9 Wind Seiryuu 2 10.5% 8 43.8% 48.8% 47.8% 48.8% 1185
10 Water Umbra Guardian 1 5.3% 4 37.5% 40.4% 45.8% 44.5% 1282 ↑ top
11 Water Tera Mage 1 5.3% 4 25.0% 39.9% 45.0% 45.9% 1165 ↓ low
12 Wind Neos 1 5.3% 3 33.3% 41.2% 45.0% 44.1% 1178 ↓ low
13 Fire Crux Mage 2 10.5% 7 42.9% 43.9% 44.7% 44.4% 1264
14 Fire Neos 1 5.3% 3 0.0% 33.9% 40.0% 42.5% 1067 ↓ low
15 Water Astra Ranger 1 5.3% 3 0.0% 39.8% 40.0% 45.2% 1054 ↓ low