← MSG Distorted Reflections Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MSG Distorted Reflections Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 9.1% | 6 | 83.3% | 57.8% | 58.0% | 53.5% | 1548 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 9.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 72.7% | 57.1% | 60.2% | 1342 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 43.7% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 1327 | — |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 63.4% | 52.0% | 54.8% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 41.1% | 50.4% | 46.7% | 1440 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 50.0% | 50.7% | 1499 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Arisanna | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 51.2% | 47.5% | 50.5% | 1119 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Genbu | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.7% | 46.7% | 48.0% | 1345 | — |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 33.8% | 46.7% | 42.5% | 1367 | — |
| 10 | Fire Suited | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 38.8% | 40.0% | 44.8% | 1108 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 36.3% | 40.0% | 43.6% | 1128 | ↓ low |