← 奇幻桌遊店冠賽

Wind Crux LorraineTier 2

at 奇幻桌遊店冠賽

decks
3 (13.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15 6-7-2
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.1% avg ELO -6.1 per match
expected value
48.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1476 · median 1453 · range 1435–1539 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1045 Q1 1264 Q3 1449 1591
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 13.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.6% +15.3
Wind Wakeup Combo 13.6% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 32.8% -12.8
Water Allies 9.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.5% +7.2
Water Umbra Guardian 9.1% 0
Wind Allies 9.1% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 36.7% -9.9
Wind Shadowstrike 9.1% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 29.0% -15.7
Fire Arcane 4.5% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.5% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 59.7% +9.3
Wind Arcane 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.7% +9.1
Wind Astra Cleric 4.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 33.9% -25.8
Wind Razorgale 4.5% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace -1.00 0 1 0
Heavenly Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Hurricane Sweep +1.00 1 0 0
Verdigris Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester +1.00 1 0 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition +1.00 1 0 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon -1.00 0 1 0
Dungeon Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Tempest Downfall -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Fluffy Shopkeep -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Annul Spell -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/35123/archetypes/Wind Crux Lorraine