EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 東門艾客米DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 3 | 11.5% | 19 | 68.4% | 58.1% | 56.6% | 53.4% | 1374 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 7.7% | 15 | 66.7% | 56.1% | 55.8% | 52.9% | 1483 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 2 | 7.7% | 14 | 71.4% | 68.6% | 55.3% | 56.2% | 1340 | — |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 58.3% | 52.3% | 54.5% | 53.1% | 1469 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 7.7% | 7 | 57.1% | 63.4% | 53.9% | 55.9% | 1247 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 7.7% | 12 | 62.5% | 57.8% | 53.3% | 52.4% | 1354 | — |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 3.8% | 7 | 64.3% | 52.7% | 51.4% | 49.5% | 1416 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.8% | 49.1% | 50.0% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.7% | 49.1% | 50.6% | 1300 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 15.4% | 16 | 40.6% | 43.6% | 46.8% | 47.5% | 1305 | — |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 7.7% | 10 | 35.0% | 47.5% | 45.1% | 48.4% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 30.0% | 38.5% | 45.0% | 45.1% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 7.7% | 8 | 25.0% | 31.1% | 42.7% | 41.8% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.8% | 2 | 0.0% | 34.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | 1166 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.8% | 4 | 0.0% | 28.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.8% | 5 | 0.0% | 33.9% | 37.3% | 42.2% | 1146 | ↓ low |