← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals (DTR)
Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals (DTR)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.4% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 26.9% | -14.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Merlin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lurid Dreaming | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |