← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals (DTR)
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals (DTR)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.4% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 63.9% | +8.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashwick Cremator | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |