← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals (DTR)
Water GenbuTier 1
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals (DTR)
decks
2
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
8-3-1
overall winrate
70.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.5%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1498
· median 1498
· range 1427–1570
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1184
Q3 1430
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.3% | -7.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
