← Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals (DTR)
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Regionals (DTR)
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1164
· median 1164
· range 1164–1164
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1184
Q3 1430
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
