← Reaper Game Store - Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Reaper Game Store - Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Mage 1 7.7% 6 100.0% 74.0% 65.7% 63.2% 1527 ↑ top
2 Wind Shadowstrike 1 7.7% 5 60.0% 48.4% 54.3% 51.0% 1303 ↓ low
3 Water Aetherwing 3 23.1% 10 50.0% 49.7% 50.9% 50.7% 1440 ↑ top
4 Fire Suzaku 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 54.9% 50.0% 52.0% 1220 ↓ low
5 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 53.1% 50.0% 51.2% 1278 ↓ low
6 Water Umbra Guardian 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 51.7% 50.0% 50.7% 1339
7 Wind Seiryuu 1 7.7% 5 60.0% 50.4% 46.7% 45.9% 1404 ↑ top
8 Slimes 1 7.7% 4 25.0% 36.9% 45.0% 44.8% 1349
9 Fire Aggro 1 7.7% 4 25.0% 45.4% 43.3% 47.7% 1203 ↓ low
10 Water Allies 1 7.7% 4 25.0% 36.9% 43.3% 42.6% 1327
11 Water Fractal 1 7.7% 2 0.0% 40.4% 40.0% 44.3% 1338