← Reaper Game Store - Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Reaper Game Store - Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.7% | 6 | 100.0% | 74.0% | 65.7% | 63.2% | 1527 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 48.4% | 54.3% | 51.0% | 1303 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 23.1% | 10 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 50.9% | 50.7% | 1440 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.9% | 50.0% | 52.0% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.1% | 50.0% | 51.2% | 1278 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 50.0% | 50.7% | 1339 | — |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.4% | 46.7% | 45.9% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Slimes | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.9% | 45.0% | 44.8% | 1349 | — |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 45.4% | 43.3% | 47.7% | 1203 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Allies | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.9% | 43.3% | 42.6% | 1327 | — |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.7% | 2 | 0.0% | 40.4% | 40.0% | 44.3% | 1338 | — |