← CoreTCG Distorted Reflection (DTR) Regional Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at CoreTCG Distorted Reflection (DTR) Regional Championship
decks
11
(13.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
64
27-28-9
overall winrate
49.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.3%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
50.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1312
· median 1345
· range 1057–1516
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1179
Q3 1387
1736
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.3% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 54.4% | +2.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 41.4% | -4.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.4% | +2.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.9% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 60.4% | +5.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.0% | -12.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.3% | +2.7 |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.8% | -8.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.2 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.3% | +11.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Genbu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.0% | -17.9 |
| Water Polkhawk | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Immolation Trap, Undying Dreams, Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Evercurrent Raider, Cremation Ritual.
Immolation Trap
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Undying Dreams
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Three of Hearts
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Evercurrent Raider
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Library Witch
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Emerald Fatestone | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Galed Erasure | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |