← CoreTCG Distorted Reflection (DTR) Regional Championship
Water AetherwingTier 2
at CoreTCG Distorted Reflection (DTR) Regional Championship
decks
2
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-5-3
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.1%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1575
· median 1575
· range 1508–1642
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1179
Q3 1387
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.7% | -2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.7 |
| Water Polkhawk | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
