Water Astra RangerTier 1
at Maindeck/JWW DTR Regionals
decks
2
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-3-5
overall winrate
57.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.8%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1236
· median 1236
· range 1232–1241
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1137
Q3 1361
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.0% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.7% | +8.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -3.9 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Astra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
