Water Tera MageTier 2
at Maindeck/JWW DTR Regionals
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
44.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1080
· median 1080
· range 1080–1080
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1137
Q3 1361
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
