Water Crux MageTier 2
at Maindeck/JWW DTR Regionals
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-1-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.6%
avg ELO +4.6 per match
expected value
55.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1376
· median 1376
· range 1376–1376
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1137
Q3 1361
1689
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
