← Grand Archive Store Championship Distorted Reflections
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Store Championship Distorted Reflections.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 90.0% | 68.1% | 61.4% | 59.8% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 90.0% | 70.3% | 58.6% | 57.9% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 3 | 16.7% | 13 | 61.5% | 56.3% | 55.3% | 53.3% | 1227 | — |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.1% | 53.3% | 51.9% | 1333 | — |
| 5 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 70.0% | 49.1% | 52.9% | 49.3% | 1597 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.3% | 52.5% | 49.5% | 1235 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.0% | 50.7% | 51.6% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 48.6% | 49.4% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Neos Tonoris | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.2% | 47.5% | 48.3% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Tera Mage | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 40.0% | 38.7% | 46.4% | 46.6% | 1476 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Neos | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 43.4% | 46.2% | 47.0% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Umbra Ciel | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 41.8% | 45.7% | 46.7% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Fractal | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.0% | 45.7% | 49.4% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 20.0% | 37.5% | 43.1% | 46.0% | 1149 | ↓ low |