EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at ストアチャンピオンシップ in HASUYA.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 70.0% | 50.3% | 57.1% | 51.0% | 1412 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 25.0% | 17 | 58.8% | 60.4% | 54.6% | 55.6% | 1339 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 3 | 18.8% | 14 | 57.1% | 44.4% | 51.7% | 47.0% | 1422 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 63.1% | 50.5% | 55.2% | 1316 | — |
| 5 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 42.9% | 50.3% | 50.7% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 12.5% | 11 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 48.4% | 48.5% | 1352 | — |
| 7 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 50.3% | 45.6% | 48.6% | 1327 | — |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 18.8% | 39.1% | 39.7% | 43.9% | 1121 | ↓ low |