← Revelfest Month-ender for November
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Revelfest Month-ender for November.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.4% | 57.7% | 50.7% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 52.0% | 57.1% | 51.3% | 1324 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 33.3% | 12 | 75.0% | 51.1% | 56.6% | 50.4% | 1293 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 52.6% | 53.3% | 50.9% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 45.7% | 50.1% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 45.7% | 50.1% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 45.7% | 50.1% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Genbu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.2% | 42.9% | 49.1% | 1241 | — |
| 9 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 46.6% | 42.2% | 48.7% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.2% | 42.2% | 49.6% | 1229 | — |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 0.0% | 45.4% | 40.0% | 48.4% | 1132 | ↓ low |