← Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 8.1% | 19 | 68.4% | 54.9% | 55.5% | 51.5% | 1473 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 58.4% | 54.3% | 53.8% | 1295 | — |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 5.4% | 14 | 64.3% | 52.6% | 53.9% | 51.3% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 5.4% | 13 | 57.7% | 50.8% | 51.9% | 50.4% | 1334 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Neos | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 41.7% | 52.6% | 51.5% | 53.3% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 58.3% | 60.1% | 50.9% | 53.4% | 1342 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 50.8% | 51.4% | 1338 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Genbu | 2 | 5.4% | 13 | 50.0% | 51.3% | 50.5% | 50.5% | 1271 | — |
| 9 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 58.3% | 43.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | 1452 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 4 | 10.8% | 21 | 52.4% | 56.0% | 49.7% | 51.4% | 1242 | — |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 5.4% | 9 | 44.4% | 46.1% | 49.5% | 49.9% | 1248 | — |
| 12 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 5.4% | 13 | 57.7% | 57.5% | 49.4% | 50.3% | 1265 | — |
| 13 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 8.1% | 21 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 49.3% | 50.3% | 1253 | — |
| 14 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 58.3% | 49.8% | 49.0% | 47.4% | 1336 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 41.7% | 40.5% | 47.9% | 46.5% | 1335 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 41.7% | 48.2% | 47.5% | 49.3% | 1147 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Suited | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.4% | 47.3% | 49.2% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 8.1% | 15 | 40.0% | 46.0% | 47.3% | 48.1% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 50.0% | 47.6% | 45.9% | 45.5% | 1227 | — |
| 20 | Slimes | 1 | 2.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.0% | 45.0% | 48.0% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 25.0% | 47.8% | 43.3% | 48.1% | 1075 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 0.0% | 23.4% | 40.0% | 41.6% | 1086 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.4% | 38.9% | 40.8% | 1163 | ↓ low |