← 1/11 PTM Regional in TGCShuffle

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 1/11 PTM Regional in TGCShuffle. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Arcane 1 1.4% 7 64.3% 52.8% 61.5% 56.4% 1386 ↑ top
2 Fire Exia 1 1.4% 6 83.3% 56.8% 58.9% 55.5% 1619 ↑ top
3 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 1.4% 7 71.4% 58.4% 56.7% 56.1% 1412 ↑ top
4 Water Aetherwing 6 8.1% 36 61.1% 64.2% 54.5% 57.1% 1308
5 Water Genbu 1 1.4% 7 71.4% 53.0% 52.2% 47.6% 1409 ↑ top
6 Wind Seiryuu 10 13.5% 54 54.6% 51.6% 51.3% 50.1% 1340
7 Water Fractal 3 4.1% 20 47.5% 49.3% 50.9% 51.5% 1331
8 Fire Umbra Alice 1 1.4% 6 50.0% 37.4% 50.9% 46.4% 1362
9 Water Astra Cleric 1 1.4% 7 64.3% 48.0% 50.4% 47.6% 1426 ↑ top
10 Fire Crux Mage 4 5.4% 28 57.1% 46.5% 50.4% 45.8% 1397 ↑ top
11 Fire Suzaku 3 4.1% 21 42.9% 48.0% 50.2% 50.8% 1219 ↓ low
12 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 2.7% 12 50.0% 55.9% 50.2% 50.8% 1295
13 Wind Shadowstrike 8 10.8% 47 52.1% 51.2% 50.0% 50.2% 1331
14 Wind Astra Cleric 3 4.1% 18 36.1% 35.8% 49.1% 47.3% 1259
15 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 2.7% 11 54.5% 58.8% 48.7% 51.9% 1229 ↓ low
16 Water Allies 2 2.7% 9 55.6% 65.7% 48.5% 53.7% 1209 ↓ low
17 Horse and Taxes 1 1.4% 7 42.9% 52.7% 48.0% 51.1% 1303
18 Fire Umbra Ciel 1 1.4% 7 21.4% 45.4% 47.9% 51.4% 1047 ↓ low
19 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 2.7% 10 45.0% 36.8% 47.9% 45.0% 1534 ↑ top
20 Fire Suited 2 2.7% 13 53.8% 61.5% 47.8% 51.5% 1313
21 Water Zander 1 1.4% 7 28.6% 50.2% 47.8% 51.8% 1099 ↓ low
22 Fire Umbra Guardian 4 5.4% 21 54.8% 40.6% 47.6% 44.7% 1448 ↑ top
23 Fire Aetherwing 1 1.4% 7 35.7% 44.2% 46.9% 48.6% 1191 ↓ low
24 Water Astra Diana 1 1.4% 3 33.3% 50.7% 46.7% 49.7% 1246 ↓ low
25 Wind Slice & Dice 2 2.7% 11 45.5% 58.3% 46.6% 52.1% 1163 ↓ low
26 Water Umbra Guardian 2 2.7% 14 42.9% 49.5% 45.8% 48.0% 1269
27 Wind Ciel 1 1.4% 4 37.5% 45.5% 45.7% 46.4% 1116 ↓ low
28 Fire Aggro 1 1.4% 7 57.1% 40.7% 45.2% 41.7% 1405 ↑ top
29 Fire Oblation 2 2.7% 8 31.2% 45.7% 44.6% 48.4% 1179 ↓ low
30 Water Astra Ranger 1 1.4% 7 42.9% 52.9% 43.3% 45.1% 1455 ↑ top
31 Wind Razorgale 1 1.4% 4 25.0% 40.8% 42.0% 41.0% 1154 ↓ low
32 Fire Seiryuu 1 1.4% 6 16.7% 37.3% 40.3% 43.4% 1149 ↓ low
33 Water Chess 1 1.4% 4 0.0% 25.9% 40.0% 39.6% 1120 ↓ low