← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 4.2% | 8 | 81.2% | 57.5% | 58.3% | 52.5% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 8.3% | 11 | 77.3% | 58.0% | 56.3% | 51.3% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 8.3% | 13 | 57.7% | 69.4% | 54.9% | 59.2% | 1304 | — |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.2% | 7 | 71.4% | 61.4% | 53.3% | 52.2% | 1479 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 46.4% | 52.5% | 48.9% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | 54.7% | 1442 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 35.5% | 52.2% | 46.7% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.2% | 6 | 58.3% | 46.0% | 51.4% | 48.3% | 1271 | — |
| 9 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 51.3% | 49.5% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 8.3% | 10 | 45.0% | 46.7% | 49.7% | 49.6% | 1351 | — |
| 11 | Water Allies | 2 | 8.3% | 11 | 50.0% | 48.1% | 49.5% | 48.8% | 1319 | — |
| 12 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 8.3% | 10 | 40.0% | 42.2% | 47.3% | 47.2% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.3% | 46.7% | 50.1% | 1031 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 4.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 48.0% | 1105 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Arcane | 2 | 8.3% | 10 | 35.0% | 45.0% | 44.5% | 46.6% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 4.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.0% | 44.0% | 48.0% | 1087 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 41.2% | 42.9% | 46.2% | 1006 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Umbra Alice | 1 | 4.2% | 5 | 0.0% | 33.8% | 40.0% | 44.2% | 1001 | ↓ low |