← Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 64.2% | 60.8% | 63.5% | 1319 | — |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 100.0% | 66.4% | 60.0% | 55.5% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 9.1% | 11 | 72.7% | 69.5% | 59.2% | 59.8% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Neos | 1 | 3.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 58.5% | 56.9% | 55.7% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.6% | 53.8% | 54.1% | 1350 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 3 | 9.1% | 15 | 46.7% | 46.5% | 52.8% | 51.7% | 1293 | — |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 55.8% | 52.7% | 54.7% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 63.4% | 52.7% | 53.5% | 1277 | — |
| 9 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 52.0% | 51.4% | 1326 | — |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 9.1% | 11 | 45.5% | 47.6% | 50.8% | 50.6% | 1299 | — |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.1% | 9 | 61.1% | 51.0% | 50.3% | 47.9% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 6.1% | 11 | 45.5% | 48.0% | 50.3% | 52.1% | 1258 | — |
| 13 | Water Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.1% | 11 | 45.5% | 42.7% | 49.5% | 47.7% | 1250 | — |
| 14 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 41.7% | 43.2% | 45.0% | 43.4% | 1261 | — |
| 15 | Wind Shadowstrike | 8 | 24.2% | 29 | 32.8% | 36.4% | 42.5% | 43.7% | 1272 | — |
| 16 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 3.0% | 2 | 25.0% | 42.9% | 42.0% | 44.3% | 1166 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 34.9% | 40.0% | 40.9% | 1208 | ↓ low |