← Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Fyendal Hobby PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aetherwing 1 3.0% 6 66.7% 64.2% 60.8% 63.5% 1319
2 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 3.0% 6 100.0% 66.4% 60.0% 55.5% 1525 ↑ top
3 Fire Aggro 3 9.1% 11 72.7% 69.5% 59.2% 59.8% 1392 ↑ top
4 Wind Neos 1 3.0% 3 66.7% 58.5% 56.9% 55.7% 1193 ↓ low
5 Fire Crux Mage 1 3.0% 4 50.0% 53.6% 53.8% 54.1% 1350 ↑ top
6 Water Fractal 3 9.1% 15 46.7% 46.5% 52.8% 51.7% 1293
7 Fire Oblation 1 3.0% 6 50.0% 55.8% 52.7% 54.7% 1190 ↓ low
8 Fire Suited 1 3.0% 6 66.7% 63.4% 52.7% 53.5% 1277
9 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 3.0% 2 50.0% 49.6% 52.0% 51.4% 1326
10 Wind Seiryuu 3 9.1% 11 45.5% 47.6% 50.8% 50.6% 1299
11 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 6.1% 9 61.1% 51.0% 50.3% 47.9% 1378 ↑ top
12 Water Aetherwing 2 6.1% 11 45.5% 48.0% 50.3% 52.1% 1258
13 Water Luxem Assassin 2 6.1% 11 45.5% 42.7% 49.5% 47.7% 1250
14 Fire Suzaku 1 3.0% 6 41.7% 43.2% 45.0% 43.4% 1261
15 Wind Shadowstrike 8 24.2% 29 32.8% 36.4% 42.5% 43.7% 1272
16 Water Astra Ranger 1 3.0% 2 25.0% 42.9% 42.0% 44.3% 1166 ↓ low
17 Water Neos 1 3.0% 2 0.0% 34.9% 40.0% 40.9% 1208 ↓ low