EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship PTM.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 8 | 25.0% | 32 | 68.8% | 56.3% | 56.5% | 52.4% | 1351 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Allies | 2 | 6.2% | 12 | 62.5% | 55.0% | 53.1% | 52.7% | 1373 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.0% | 52.7% | 53.2% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.8% | 52.0% | 50.6% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Oblation | 3 | 9.4% | 16 | 53.1% | 58.1% | 51.0% | 54.3% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 53.9% | 50.7% | 54.0% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 65.0% | 50.6% | 54.3% | 1304 | — |
| 8 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.4% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 1194 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 40.1% | 48.8% | 48.0% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 45.0% | 45.1% | 47.5% | 49.8% | 1363 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 44.6% | 46.7% | 44.8% | 1466 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 6.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 48.3% | 44.3% | 46.0% | 1270 | — |
| 13 | Slimes | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.7% | 44.3% | 50.1% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Fractal | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 46.1% | 42.5% | 47.2% | 1075 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 45.0% | 42.6% | 41.7% | 42.9% | 1327 | — |
| 16 | Water Umbra Guardian | 2 | 6.2% | 7 | 21.4% | 37.2% | 40.8% | 43.4% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.8% | 40.6% | 40.4% | 1350 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 34.3% | 40.0% | 39.2% | 1336 | — |
| 19 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 30.0% | 50.2% | 37.3% | 46.2% | 1200 | ↓ low |