← Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 2.1% | 3 | 100.0% | 63.9% | 60.0% | 56.9% | 1562 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 2 | 4.2% | 12 | 75.0% | 65.8% | 58.2% | 57.7% | 1509 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Slimes | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 45.5% | 57.5% | 49.9% | 1632 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 5 | 10.4% | 28 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.0% | 52.0% | 1319 | — |
| 5 | Wind Luxem Zander | 2 | 4.2% | 9 | 61.1% | 48.9% | 53.9% | 50.9% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 2 | 4.2% | 12 | 62.5% | 62.0% | 53.5% | 54.5% | 1260 | — |
| 7 | Fire Suited | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 57.9% | 53.3% | 55.3% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 6.2% | 16 | 56.2% | 58.1% | 53.3% | 54.2% | 1258 | — |
| 9 | Water Chess | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 51.7% | 50.2% | 1345 | — |
| 10 | Horse and Taxes | 3 | 6.2% | 16 | 56.2% | 48.2% | 51.4% | 49.5% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Slimes | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 41.7% | 48.7% | 50.1% | 51.5% | 1225 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 4.2% | 12 | 41.7% | 55.3% | 49.2% | 52.4% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 8.3% | 21 | 42.9% | 40.7% | 49.0% | 47.9% | 1279 | — |
| 14 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 61.3% | 48.7% | 50.8% | 1368 | — |
| 15 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 45.4% | 48.6% | 47.7% | 1292 | — |
| 16 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 4.2% | 12 | 45.8% | 51.7% | 48.4% | 50.8% | 1258 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 46.7% | 48.2% | 46.3% | 1597 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Fire Aetherwing | 3 | 6.2% | 17 | 44.1% | 46.0% | 47.6% | 48.3% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Water Ravishing Mill | 3 | 6.2% | 17 | 38.2% | 46.1% | 47.6% | 49.8% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Neos | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 47.7% | 47.1% | 49.5% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 4.2% | 12 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 46.9% | 48.0% | 1485 | ↑ top |
| 22 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 41.5% | 45.6% | 46.0% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 6.2% | 18 | 36.1% | 39.6% | 43.1% | 43.8% | 1306 | — |
| 24 | Fire Tera Kongming | 2 | 4.2% | 11 | 13.6% | 29.9% | 40.9% | 43.3% | 1093 | ↓ low |