← Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive PTM Regionals at Gamers Guild North Phoenix. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 2.1% 3 100.0% 63.9% 60.0% 56.9% 1562 ↑ top
2 Water Genbu 2 4.2% 12 75.0% 65.8% 58.2% 57.7% 1509 ↑ top
3 Water Slimes 1 2.1% 6 75.0% 45.5% 57.5% 49.9% 1632 ↑ top
4 Water Aetherwing 5 10.4% 28 62.5% 56.2% 54.0% 52.0% 1319
5 Wind Luxem Zander 2 4.2% 9 61.1% 48.9% 53.9% 50.9% 1426 ↑ top
6 Water Fractal 2 4.2% 12 62.5% 62.0% 53.5% 54.5% 1260
7 Fire Suited 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 57.9% 53.3% 55.3% 1114 ↓ low
8 Wind Astra Cleric 3 6.2% 16 56.2% 58.1% 53.3% 54.2% 1258
9 Water Chess 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 48.4% 51.7% 50.2% 1345
10 Horse and Taxes 3 6.2% 16 56.2% 48.2% 51.4% 49.5% 1451 ↑ top
11 Slimes 1 2.1% 6 41.7% 48.7% 50.1% 51.5% 1225 ↓ low
12 Fire Crux Mage 2 4.2% 12 41.7% 55.3% 49.2% 52.4% 1228 ↓ low
13 Wind Shadowstrike 4 8.3% 21 42.9% 40.7% 49.0% 47.9% 1279
14 Wind Lorraine 1 2.1% 6 58.3% 61.3% 48.7% 50.8% 1368
15 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 45.4% 48.6% 47.7% 1292
16 Fire Oblation 2 4.2% 12 45.8% 51.7% 48.4% 50.8% 1258 ↓ low
17 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 2.1% 6 58.3% 46.7% 48.2% 46.3% 1597 ↑ top
18 Fire Aetherwing 3 6.2% 17 44.1% 46.0% 47.6% 48.3% 1419 ↑ top
19 Water Ravishing Mill 3 6.2% 17 38.2% 46.1% 47.6% 49.8% 1180 ↓ low
20 Wind Neos 1 2.1% 6 33.3% 47.7% 47.1% 49.5% 1176 ↓ low
21 Wind Wakeup Combo 2 4.2% 12 50.0% 52.3% 46.9% 48.0% 1485 ↑ top
22 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 2.1% 6 33.3% 41.5% 45.6% 46.0% 1162 ↓ low
23 Wind Seiryuu 3 6.2% 18 36.1% 39.6% 43.1% 43.8% 1306
24 Fire Tera Kongming 2 4.2% 11 13.6% 29.9% 40.9% 43.3% 1093 ↓ low