← Indonesia Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Regionals
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Indonesia Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
2
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
1-8-0
overall winrate
11.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.5%
avg ELO -9.0 per match
expected value
39.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1142
· median 1142
· range 1097–1187
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1160
Q3 1335
1508
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Water Fractal | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
