← Indonesia Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Regionals
Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at Indonesia Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
3
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
5-10-1
overall winrate
34.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.5%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
43.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1188
· median 1155
· range 1140–1268
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1160
Q3 1335
1508
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.4% | -14.0 |
| Water Fractal | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
