← Indonesia Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Regionals
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Indonesia Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Regionals
decks
3
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-9-1
overall winrate
47.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1223
· median 1174
· range 1111–1385
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1160
Q3 1335
1508
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.9% | -9.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Tera Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
