← Indonesia Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Regionals
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at Indonesia Grand Archive Phantom Monarch Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 43.9% | -3.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.1% | +2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.1% | -5.6 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Obscured Offering | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Brackish Lutist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |