Fire AggroTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1323
· median 1323
· range 1259–1387
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1129
Q1 1201
Q3 1407
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 24.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 16.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
