Fire Crux MerlinTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.8%
avg ELO +3.4 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1401
· median 1401
· range 1401–1401
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1129
Q1 1201
Q3 1407
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 24.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 16.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
