Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-5-1
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.2%
avg ELO -5.3 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1464
· median 1464
· range 1396–1532
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1129
Q1 1201
Q3 1407
1532
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 24.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 16.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.5 |
| Fire Suited | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
