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Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2

at PTM Store Championship

decks
4 (16.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16 7-7-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.1% avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
49.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352 · median 1376 · range 1194–1461 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1129 Q1 1201 Q3 1407 1532
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 24.0% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.1% +0.0
Fire Aggro 8.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 33.0% -16.3
Water Aetherwing 8.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 44.3% -9.1
Wind Shadowstrike 8.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 54.4% +4.2
Fire Aetherwing 4.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.6% +4.2
Fire Crux Merlin 4.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 39.2% -10.3
Fire Suited 4.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.5% -4.3
Fire Tera Diao Chan 4.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.8% +4.4
Water Genbu 4.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 61.5% +11.1
Water Umbra Guardian 4.0% 0
Wind Byakko 4.0% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 4.0% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 4.0% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orb of Sealing -1.00 0 1 0
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Insignia of the Corhazi -1.00 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Return to the Archive +1.00 1 0 0
Stolen Chance +1.00 1 0 0
Expel the Departed +1.00 1 0 0
Excalibur, Cleansing Light -1.00 0 1 0
Prismspire Scepter +1.00 1 0 0
Vanish from Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Waited Accord +1.00 1 0 0
Fast Cure -1.00 0 1 0
Wisdom's Reprise +1.00 1 0 0
Tabula of Salvage +1.00 1 0 0
Scry the Skies -1.00 0 1 0
Juggle Knives +1.00 1 0 0
Ducal Seal -1.00 0 1 0
Regal Inquisition -1.00 0 1 0
Annul Spell +1.00 1 0 0
Topsy Decree +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/41826/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin