Fire AggroTier 1
at 貓腳印雄二店 Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.5% | +16.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 12.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.2% | -7.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Molten Echo | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |