Fire OblationTier 1
at 貓腳印雄二店 Store Championship
decks
4
(12.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
8-8-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.8%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
52.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1314
· range 1161–1419
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1116
Q1 1230
Q3 1394
1523
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 12.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.0% | +6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.5% | -16.1 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.5% | -13.8 |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
