Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at 貓腳印雄二店 Store Championship
decks
2
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-5-1
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
21.8%
avg ELO -13.5 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1415
· median 1415
· range 1410–1419
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1116
Q1 1230
Q3 1394
1523
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 12.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.2 |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
