← Shuffle Phantom Monarchs Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Shuffle Phantom Monarchs Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Fractal 1 5.9% 7 64.3% 64.1% 57.6% 59.0% 1333 ↑ top
2 Water Allies 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 58.1% 57.3% 57.7% 1249
3 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 5.9% 7 57.1% 46.5% 56.3% 52.9% 1309 ↑ top
4 Wind Seiryuu 2 11.8% 12 66.7% 54.9% 54.8% 51.8% 1254
5 Wind Lorraine 1 5.9% 6 58.3% 63.0% 54.4% 57.5% 1214 ↓ low
6 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 5.9% 5 50.0% 46.4% 52.4% 51.0% 1224
7 Wind Shadowstrike 5 29.4% 21 38.1% 39.7% 48.8% 48.3% 1267
8 Fire Exia 1 5.9% 5 60.0% 60.9% 48.7% 51.4% 1224
9 Water Aetherwing 2 11.8% 7 42.9% 50.0% 42.7% 45.6% 1301 ↑ top
10 Fire Crux Mage 2 11.8% 7 21.4% 31.2% 38.8% 39.4% 1208 ↓ low