Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Card's Village Store champ
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-5-1
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1267
· median 1267
· range 1226–1308
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1220
Q1 1230
Q3 1378
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 3.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.2% | -11.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
