EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 2025/12/28 RiRiCO 店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 90.0% | 74.6% | 58.3% | 59.4% | 1428 | — |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 75.0% | 71.0% | 57.0% | 59.5% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.1% | 56.0% | 56.6% | 1340 | — |
| 4 | Fire Oblation | 4 | 23.5% | 16 | 62.5% | 55.4% | 54.7% | 53.3% | 1391 | — |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 70.0% | 56.9% | 53.7% | 51.2% | 1429 | — |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 50.0% | 42.5% | 53.5% | 49.4% | 1442 | — |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 44.7% | 52.5% | 48.7% | 1618 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | 1267 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 11.8% | 10 | 40.0% | 40.4% | 46.6% | 46.2% | 1465 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 17.6% | 11 | 13.6% | 33.4% | 40.5% | 44.0% | 1319 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 0.0% | 36.1% | 30.9% | 38.7% | 1284 | ↓ low |