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Fire OblationTier 2
at 1Collectibles PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.2% | -10.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Feu Awakening | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |